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SCATTER_DEBIAS

                                             December 31, 2023


                                                           QUESTIONING_DEBIASING


  "Noise" (2021) by Kahneman,
  Sibony and Sunstein, p. 238:
                                                     SCATTER_THE_NOISE

  "Decades of research have shown that
  professionals who have learned to avoid
  biases in their area of expertise often
  struggle to apply what they have learned
  to different fields."


  p.240:

  "It is often difficult to know exactly which
  psychological biases are affecting a judgement.
  In any situation of some complecity, multiple
  psychological biases may be at work,
  conspiring to add error in the same direction
  or offsetting one another with unpredictable
  consequences."


What I'm looking or, and not seeing in this discussion
is studies evaluating different approaches to debiasing.

Their objections to different approaches seem reasonable,
but they seem very theoretical.


     They propose a system of adding a "decision observer"
     to spy on a group, and using a "checklist" to
     diagnose whether any biases may be pushing
     the group away from the best possible judgement.


          Okay, I can "imagine" this.  Have they tried it?

           "Informal experiments suuggest, however, that
            real progress is helpful under the right
            conditions, expecially when the leader of the
            organization or team are truly committed
            to the effort, and when the decision
            observers are well chosen-- and not susceptible
            to serious biases of their own."

          Cooool.
                        SCATTER_THE_PAGES



   Later on (p.260), they *do* discuss Tetlock's "Superforecasting" stuff.

                                                 SUPERFORECASTING

   It's a basic summary of the work, they refer to it as "important"
   but to my eye they haven't digested the result or incorporated it
   into their own thinking.

   They talk quite a bit about when aggregating different expert
   opinions can be useful.







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