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NUCLEAR_GALLUP
April 5, 2019
From a comment posted at reddit
[link]
My picture of things is this: if you hang around online,
you'll hear from people stressing out about things like NUKES
the dangerousness of nuclear power, but there are some
signs that these people are a vocal faction that's not
necessarily representative of the public.
If you look at the gallup polls on nuclear
power, the US public remained positive on
the idea for many years-- it's only in (July 2020)
recent years (in 2016) that the popularity
of nuclear power has dropped below the And since then
half-way point. If the main trouble was it's bounced
safety concerns, you would have expected it back...
to happen earlier, say around Fukushima.
Expert analysis suggests the change in opinion has to
do with low gasoline prices (as you may note, this
makes no sense whatsoever. Welcome to America).
Some years back, there was a TED
debate between Stewart Brand and
Mark Z. Jacobsen, where surveys
before and after the debate showed
the audience was swayed against Since then, Jacobsen's
nuclear. Mark Z. Jacobsen's studies have been shot
schtick is not to argue "nuclear down, and Jacobsen has
power is dangerous", but rather to arguably revealed
claim that we can solve our energy himself to be a nutjob
problems solely with renewables by threatening his
(i.e. wind and solar), and he has critics with defamation
studies to prove it. law suits--
I submit that the *main* reason public opinion
of nuclear has cooled is this Jacobsen Effect--
if you're convinced it's plausible that we can
do it all with solar and wind, then what's the
point in even thinking about anything else?
It would be nice if we could just say "global
warming is a bad problem, we need to work on
anything that might help"-- after all, progress
with solar and wind is no doubt a good thing,
and even if it only contributes, say, 20% of
our energy mix, that's not nothing, so by all
means lets go for that. And see if we can push
it even higher.
But if you believe (as I do) that the
renewables enthusiasts are overstating their
case, you're stuck pointing that out: their
enthusiasm is actually the enemy of a sane
decision-making process.
This abstract of this study looks interesting:
[link]
It's an attempt at quantifying how scared
people are of the *label* "nuclear", but it
doesn't really change my conclusion that fear
isn't the biggest factor:
"Respondents who see the labels deploy 6.6
percentage points less nuclear power as a
share of the U.S. electricity mix."
[link]
From the news on the gallup 2016 poll:
"Lower gasoline prices over the past year are likely
driving greater opposition toward the use of nuclear
power. As Americans have paid less at the pump,
their level of worry about the nation's energy
situation has dropped to 15-year-low levels.
"This appears to have resulted in more Americans
prioritizing environmental protection and fewer
backing nuclear power as an alternative energy
source."
From a more extensive write-up:
"The Gallup Poll: Public Opinion 2016
edited by Frank Newport"
[link]
"The increase in the share of Americans-- both
Republican and Democrat-- preferring an
alternative energy strategy in 2016 coincides
with an oil supply surplus that has caused fuel
prices to plummet. High fuel costs may prime
American consumers to prefer increased production
of oil and gas as a means to alleviate burdensome
prices at the pump."
Later in the book:
"o Opposition to fracking rises to 51% from 40% in 2015
o Drop in fracking mirrors American's turn
away from nuclear energy
o Republicans fuel drop in support for fracking"
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