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THE_THEORY_OF_CONSPIRACY

                                              July 10, 2004
                                         Rev: Aug  21, 2006

No one doubts that
conspiracies exist.
                             However, it does
People form alliances,       seem likely that
gangs, cartels, and so       such alliances are    Prisoner's
on whenever they think       often unstable.       Dilemma, and
that there's something                             so on.
to be gained.

And they do so
secretly, when there's
something to be gained
from keeping it secret.

And yet,
"conspiracy         One possibility:
theorists" have     the conspiracy
a very poor         likes it that way.
reputation...
                                     Having some
Many conspiracy                      exceptionally
theorists have                       silly
a tendency to                        conspiracy
leap ahead of                        theorists out
the evidence.                        there could be
                                     useful.             Is that any
That some conspiracy                                     less absurd
or other might exist                                     than the
is likely, that a                                        common
conspiracy theorist                                      practice of
has fingered the one                                     using "agent
that's actually                                          provacateurs"?
there is often less
plausible.                                                 PROVOCATEUR

Part of the                                     The great fear of paranoia
syndrome is the                                 is a tremendous force.
assumption of
perfection on              Real
the part of the            conspiracies
opposition.                are often
                           quite clumsy,
If you believe             unglamorous
they're capable            affairs.
of covering up
anything, then             They don't
there are no               need to be
checks left on             undetectable          Those who want to
what you can               in order to be        remain in denial
believe.                   sucessful.            should be assisted
                                                 in doing so.
 RAZING_CONSPIRACY         All they have
                           to do is              If those who are not
                           preserve              convinced are
                           deniability.          sufficiently marginal --
                                                 or are kept marginal, or
                                                 are convinced that they
                                                 are marginal -- then the
                                                 game is won.

                                                    There's often a time
                                                    window of relevence:
                                                    a conspiracy need
                                                    not remain secret
                                                    forever.

                                                         If you can hang
My attitude of late:                                     on long enough,
                                                         then it's just
For many purposes,                                       "ancient history"
you don't need proof.           And you need             and it's "time to
                                to keep in               move on".
If you're trying to gauge       mind what
the system's resistance         you're trying                Interestingly
to corruption, finding          to prove,                    enough, the
proof that a weakness           for what                     horizon of
has been exploited is           purpose...                   history seems
less critical than                                           to be creeping
identifying the weakness.                                    closer and
                                                             closer...
   A plausible theory             STANDARDS_OF_PROOF
   may be enough.                                            The effective
                                                             statute of
   If it didn't really happen                                limitations is
   that way this time, then it                               already down to a
   might happen that way next                                few years... for
   time... unless we take                                    the sufficiently
   some preventative action.                                 well-connected.




             And there are
             other forms
             of prevention
             besides
             criminal
             convictions.







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