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THE_SWAN_SLEEPS

                                             Feb 14, 2008
                                             May  9, 2008
Taleb makes the point that
many scientific discoveries                  BLACK_SWAN
are essentially inadvertent
(p. 166, 167) -- and I'm glad
to see he references the
Koestler book "The
Sleepwalkers", which I like
quite a bit.

I do think he exaggerates the role of
randomness in research, but it appears it
would be impossible to prove this to him:

He refuses to believe any reports of
linear discoveries ("we set out to                            FALSE_KARL
find this and we did"), presuming
that this is just a story made up             How can he say this
afterwards to make it sound like the          without feeling embarrassed?
researchers knew what they were doing.        He's always always going
                                              on about empiricism and
                                              falsifiability and
                                              "confirmation bias"...

                                                    Ah, but at least I don't
                                                    think he said that in
      It's a truly nutty assertion,                 print... that was in a
      showing a complete lack of                    EconTalk interview
      knowledge of the way modern                   available on the web:
      research is conducted:
                                                       [ref]
      (1) you're almost never *allowed* to just
      mess around, you've got to explain where
      you're going when you apply for funding

      (2) scientists *love* to tell stories
      about serendipitous discoveries, where
      would the incentive be to fake a sense
      of directedness?  They care if you have
      the right answer, how you got there is
      far less important.

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