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SPORT_OF_PREDICTION

                                   June 24, 2004

     SPORTS_LOGIC

In the current situation, where you've
got the nation at war, and the incumbent
only slightly ahead in the polls, that's
*seriously* bad news for the incumbent.

So one more pre-
election prediction:

Kerry (or more
accurately "Anybody But
Bush") is going to do
suprisingly well, in             Nov 12, 2004:
contradiction to the
polls right up to the            Wrong again!
eve of the election.             That's a shock, eh?

With any luck, what will
happen is that the
pre-election polls will
show a slight advantage
to Bush, and Kerry will
win with a landslide;
and people will stop
taking these silly polls
quite so seriously.


  But: all of the above
  presumes that the
  situation with the               (Unfortunately,
  Diebold voting machines          I might have
  isn't much worse than I          been wrong about
  think it is.                     this, too.)

  It's widely understood                       LAST_EXIT_FOR_DEMOCRACY
  that these things are a
  total joke, and yet there
  are evidentally some
  states that are still
  planning on using these
  things in November.


Anyway: you shouldn't be
tremendously surprised at the      Nov 12, 2004:
kind of thing that happened to
Bush Senior... record approval     They learned their
ratings during wartime,            lesson and made
followed by being voted out of     sure we were *still*      ETERNAL_CONFLICT
office shortly thereafter.         at war during the
                                   election?

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