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NARRATIVE_DRIVE

If our grasp of narrative is central       April 6, 2008
to our understanding of the world  -       May   6, 2008
then it would seem to be something that
needs study.                               RELUCTANT_STORYTELLER


   It raises some interesting
   possibilities: one might save the
   world with a school of literary
   criticism.

   At the heart of our study of
   humanity is a study of stories.


The kind of stories we like,
the way we relate to stories,                  Why is it that it's
the different kinds of stories that            easier to get Americans
might be produced, and the                     interested in stories
ways we might be able to relate                about mythical Iraqi
to them if we made an effort to                nukes than in stories
do so...                                       about a neo-fascist
                                               takeover of the U.S.,
                                               justified by trumped-up
   These are huge subjects,                    external threats?
   possibly critically important
   subjects.                                       What makes people
                                                   shudder at the thought
      If there's a problem with our                of nuclear accidents,
      collective understanding of                  but shrug off thousands
      the world, might it not be                   of deaths from coal
      at root a disease of narrative?              exhausts?

                                                        Perhaps we need a
                                                        wider taxonomy of
                                                        the unpredicted.
                                                        Some swans that
                     The theory that I come             alight become
                     back to often is that              ominous vultures
                     the trouble may be that            all expect to
                     we don't take our                  return: 9/11,
                     stories seriously.                 Chernobyl/TMI...

                     Once, stories were                 Do all?
   Peter Schwartz,   held in regard as
   is an advocate    something sacred...                Are all disasters
   of "scenario      perhaps that made                  dark swans?
   planning",        some sense.
   i.e. grasping at                                        Or is there a
   the future by                                           syndrome of
   telling multiple                                        ignoring the
   stories.                                                possibilty
                                                           that some dark
                                                           birds will
                                                           ever return,
                                                           in spite of
                                                           all historical
                                                           evidence?

                                                             Wars.
                     Taleb does admit                        Floods.
                     that we don't always
                     underestimate the odds     RISK_ASSESSMENT
                     of big changes:

                           "... there are conditions
                           under which people
                           overestimate the unusual or
                           some specific unusual event
                           (say when sensational images
                           come to their minds) -- which,
                           we have seen, is how insurance
                           companies thrive." -- p. 141


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