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                                                           June 29, 2021

Another editorial-- I mean, news "briefing"-- has
arrived in my email this morning from David Leonhardt
of the NYT.                                                 DAILY_NAIL
   
Here he's using PEW breakdowns of        These write-ups are actually available
political categories to show us that     on-line, though weirdly there's no
the "solid liberal" faction of the       obvious link to them in the email:
electorate in New York City is a mere    
19%, and that faction is mostly                 [link]
highly educated white people.  So    
despite the well publicized AOC and    
fellow squad members, you can't      
expect the NY mayors race to swing    
left.                                
     
       And there's a lesson to be
       learned from this: moderates        This is a pretty common
       *rule* and you goddamn              analysis, though this one has
       bernistas and aoc-fans better       some interesting overtones of
       sit down and shut up or we're       reducto ad honky about it: those
       going to lose elections.            lefties are a bunch of clueless
                                           over-educated white fucks,
                                           unrepresentive of the opinions
                                           of real people of color, who are
                                           sensible enough to listen to the
                                           compulsive moderateness-- I mean
                                           committment to truth-- of
                                           over-educated white fucks like
                                           David Leonhardt.


This is his key point-- supported by many
a link to surveys and studies:

  "Black, Hispanic and Asian American voters
  are to the right of white Democrats on many       There's no mention of
  issues. Many voters of color are skeptical        age breakdowns there--
  of immigration and free trade. They favor         as I remember it the
  border security, as well as some abortion         younger non-whites break
  restrictions. They are worried about crime        further left-- if that
  and oppose cuts to police funding. They are       holds as they get older
  religious."                                       this argument may very
                                                    well lose strenth over time.

Leonhardt sums up:

  "The good news for the party is that public-opinion data
  shows a clear majority of Americans lean left on economic
  issues and are much more moderate on social issues than
  many Republicans."

  "The bad news for the Democratic Party is that this
  national majority is not as liberal as many high-profile
  Democratic activists and politicians. It isn’t clear
  whether those activists and politicians are willing to
  moderate their positions to win more elections."


This, for all it's just-the-facts-mam tone of certainty
(a Leonhardt specialty) is skipping quite a bit of things,
to the point where it's difficult to know where to begin.

  o  what was the funding like for these candidates?           RANKEDCHOICE
     when there's a lefty in the race, the "centrists"
     tend to suck up all the money, and then all the oxygen.

  o  what was the media attention like for these candidates?
     Big media increasingly means big money, so media
     spin is owned by our lords and masters.

  o  Leonhardt frames this as a "lesson for democrats
     from the ny mayor's race", but while the moderate
     dude is ahead at present it's actually going to      If the moderate
     be a pretty close race--                             loses then the
                                                          moderates, being
                                                          very reasonable
                                                          people, will no
                                                          doubt reconsider
                                                          their opinions on
                                                          political strategy.

                                                          (Just kidding.)

                                                          MODERATE_JIHAD
Let's start here:

  The core principle underlying this kind of analysis is
  "tell 'em what they (think they) want to hear":

     The core moderate principle is having none.

  Just as a practical matter, I think it's difficult to
  win elections with candidates that people don't
  perceive as genuine.

  Need I remind that Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump?
  Yeah, okay, not the popular vote, so let me rephrase this:

      Hillary Clinton ran a close election
      *against Donald fucking Trump*.

  Every clever analysis supporting the idea of Being
  Moderate has to run up against this one simple fact.

                                           Has anyone made any attempt at
                                           all at surveying voter
                                           perceptions of candidate
                                           sincerity and the influence of
                                           that on elections?


Another point:
   
Is there any room at all for something         
like "leadership" in the moderate's view         
of the world?                                
                                             Is a candidate allowed to go
                                             "Yes, I know many people
                                             disagree with this position,
                                             but I think if they listen to
                                             me make the case for it I can
                                             persuade them."


   Bernie Sanders lost the primary to Joe
   Biden, but Biden has swung much farther
   left than most of us expected-- it's
   pretty clear that the Bernies and AOCs
   opened the door for Biden to do this,
   didn't they?

   And if the Moderistas had their way,
   this door would still be solidly shut.




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