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LONG_VIEW

H.G. Wells and the _Outline of History_

H.G. Wells, in his "Outline of          SCALE
History", around p. 815 (of the
3rd edition) discusses the
conclusion of Gibbon's "The
Decline and Fall of the Roman
Empire".

Wells uses Gibbon as
an example of the                         There's some irony in this in
blindness of the men                      that Wells "Outline" can also
of his class and                          be used this way...            ARYAN
times.

Gibbon, writing around 1780,              Wells, writing around 1920 in
wonders if the British Empire             his final chapter "The Next
could fall just as Rome fell:             Stage of History" argues that
                                          a world government is
"Europe is now divided                    necessary and desireable.
into twelve powerful, though
unequal kingdoms, three                                    WORLDGOV
respectable commonwealths, and a
variety of smaller, though
independent, states; the chances
of royal and ministerial talents           According to Wells,
are multiplied, at least with the          Gibbon is a "gentleman"
number of its rulers....  The              who expects that all rulers
abuses of tyranny are restrained           will naturally be "gentlemen",
by the mutual influence and fear           by the nature of things.
of shame; republics have acquired
order and stability; monarchies
have imbibed the principles of
freedom, or, at least, of
moderation; and some sense of
honour and justice is introduced           Wells chides Gibbon for
into the most defective                    being blind to the internal
constitutions by the general               pressures building up that
manner of the times.  In peace,            would lead to the conflicts
the progress of knowledge and              between the rulers and the
industry is accelerated by the             ruled.
emulation of so many active
rivals: in war, the European               And further: "Gibbon forgets
forces are exercised by temperate          here that cannon and the
and undecisive contests."                  fundamentals of modern
                                           military method came to
                                           Europe with the Mongols."

"Europe is secure from any future
irruption of Barbarians; since,             Common wishful thinking in
before they can conquer, they must          SF: anyone advanced enough
cease to be barbarous..."                   to cross interstellar space
                                            will be socially advanced enough
                                            to treat us better than we've
                                            treated "inferior" cultures in
                                            the past.

                                                 "The Day the Earth Stood Still"


An important lesson, I think, of the "Outline":


"History has never gone simply
forward."       p. 1091

   The curve of history is not
   smooth.  Extrapolating from
   current conditions is
   always dangerous, since
   they may be a minor
   deviation from the broad
   trend.


         Two centuries elapsed
         between Roger Bacon and
         Sir Francis Bacon. Two
         centuries between the idea
         of science and it's
         popularization.

            If Roger Bacon had to
            wait that long, how
            can I complain if
            humanity seems to be
            sleepwalking?


"One cannot foretell the
surprises or disappointments the
future has in store."   p. 1100

"It may be that 'private                       The lesson of service?
enterprise' will refuse                        How exactly should an
to learn the lesson of                         enlightened capitalist
service without some                           behave?
quite catastrophic                                         Current libertarian
revolution, and that a                  This, seems        thought would be
phase of confiscation and               all too            that this
amateurish socialistic                  prophetic.         enlightenment,
government lies before us."                                this altruism,
                                                           should be
                                                           unnecessary.
"Human history becomes more      Oft quoted.
and more a race between          Like Fuller's
education and catastrophe."      Choice between
                                 "Utopia or Oblivion"
"Yet clumsily or smoothly,
the world, it seems,
progresses and will
progress."



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